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The Influence of COVID-19 on Fertility Intention under the Three-Child Policy
Shi Zhilei, Shao Xi
Population Research 2023, 47 (
2
): 78-95.
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539
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COVID-19 has a huge impact on society. It is urgent to study how COVID-19 affects fertility intention. Based on the Hubei Fertility Survey, the study finds that COVID-19 has a positive effect on the fertility intention. As the risk level of epidemic increases by one unit, there would be an increase of 39.6% in the fertility intention of the second child and an increase of 55.6% in that of the third child. Further analyses show that, for the second child fertility intention, COVID-19 has a more significant promotion effect on groups with high self-rated socio-economic status, high education level, and non-agricultural Hukou. For the third child fertility intention, COVID-19 only promoted the fertility intention of groups with high self-rated socio-economic status, high education level, and non-agricultural Hukou. These results have import implications for understanding the fertility changing trend during the post-epidemic era.
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The Universal Two-Child Policy and Changing Fertility Level of Floating Population
Shi Zhilei, Lyu Jie
Population Research 2021, 45 (
2
): 13-29.
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469
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Based on China Migrants Dynamic Surveys from 2011 to 2018, this paper examines the fertility level and its changing trend of the floating population, and assesses the influence effect and internal mechanism of the universal twochild policy on the fertility level of floating population. The results show that the fertility level of floating population in China has fluctuated and increased since 2010, and the universal twochild policy has a significant impact on the secondchild fertility level of floating women. However, the accumulation effect of fertility caused by the policy was released quickly. In 2017, the fertility level of Chinas floating population reached a peak of 1.862, which was also the turning point when the fertility level turned from rise to decline. With the gradual implementation of the twochild policy, the secondchild fertility level of the floating population of different socioeconomic status has reversed: the secondchild fertility rate of the floating population with high socioeconomic status is lower at first, and then begins to approach or even surpass that of the low socioeconomic group. Studying the changes of fertility patterns among different groups caused by the universal two-child policy, we may shed light on the longterm development trend of China's population.
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Marital Stability in the Process of Temporary Migration#br#
Ma Zhongdong,Shi Zhilei
Population Research 2017, 41 (
1
): 70-83.
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484
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In this study,we construct a multidimensional framework for analyzing marital stability among floating population,generate hypotheses,and test them based on a large sample survey of 157535 migrants’households in 106 cities in China.The prevalent divorce rates among floating population are of clear patterns by age,education and urban/rural type,with higher rates for older,more educated and urban-registered residents.By province,the divorce rate of flow-in migrants is similar to that of flow-out migrants,reflecting regionalized cultural effects on marriage.The risk of divorce is enhanced in the migration process during which the quality of marriage declines,contacts for the substitution increase,and search costs for marriage reduce.Regression results show that the odds of being divorced are greater for solely moved husbands ( than wives) and those who migrated for a longer period and over a shorter distance.
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Fertility Intention and Fertility Behaviour in Hubei Province under the New Two-child Policy
Shi Zhilei,Yang Yunyan
Population Research 2014, 38 (
5
): 27-.
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2028
)
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Adjustment of the family planning policy provides an opportunity to reexamine fertility intentions of the urban and rural families in China.A survey with a large sample size has been completed about the fertility desires of the second child of the couples in which one side has no siblings under the new two-child policy in Hubei province.Survey results show that the proportion definitely wanting a second child is 21. 51%,with the proportion in the rural families being higher than that of the urban families; the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of women’s age,and is also decreasing with the increasing of women’s schooling for urban families while increasing for rural families.A half of the families which are allowed to have a second child state they will give up the opportunity because of economic pressure.Migration reduces the desire for having the second child and weakens son preference.Relative to the structural risk of fertility accumulation,ultra-low fertility trap should arouse more concern.
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Cited: Baidu(
21
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Family Endowment and Return Migration in Rural China
Yang Yunyan, Shi Zhilei
Population Research 2012, 36 (
4
): 3-17.
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2988
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Objective
Using data from a sampling survey of rural families in Hubei Province in Central China,this paper analyzes the factors influencing migrants′ decision making on their return migration.Two types of empirical models are performed to test the determinants of return migration decision of the new generation of migrants and the children of householder.Results indicate that rural labour migration is a rational choice of decision taking into account of a variety of factors including family endowment Effect,which is more apparent for the new generation of migrant workers.Family′s economic capital tends to impede return migration.The probability of return migration initially increases with accumulation of human capital and natural capital,but turns downwards after reaching a certain level.Members from families having abundant human capital can more fully and effectively use their social capital.Differences exist in utilizing social capital and natural capital between the first and the new generation of migrants.
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Cited: Baidu(
17
)